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苗元亮 ，張書坤 ，孟   超

 

（山東水總有限公司 ，濟南 250014)

摘   要 ：為準確掌握特殊型古滑坡的肇災(zāi)演化流程及穩(wěn)定狀態(tài) ，基于古滑坡所處地質(zhì)條件及基本特征 ，開展其肇災(zāi)影響因素分析和演化過程分析 ；以滑坡變形監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ) ，在剔除滑坡變形數(shù)據(jù)中隨機噪聲的基礎(chǔ)上 ，通過尖點突變分析和多重分形去趨勢波動分析分別開展滑坡穩(wěn)定性現(xiàn)狀評價及發(fā)展趨勢評價。結(jié)果表明：古滑坡肇災(zāi)影響因素較為完備 ，其演化過程主要包括古滑坡前期形成期及臨近復(fù)活期 ，演化過程階段較為清晰；同時 ，通過尖點突變分析 ，各監(jiān)測點的突變特征值均大于 0 ,  滑坡現(xiàn)狀穩(wěn)定性均屬穩(wěn)定狀態(tài) ；多重分形去趨勢波動分析結(jié)果顯示 ，各監(jiān)測點的傳統(tǒng) Hurst 指數(shù)均大于 0. 5 ,  說明滑坡累計變形仍會進一步增加 ，穩(wěn)定性均趨于不利方向發(fā)展 ，應(yīng)盡快開展滑坡防治。研究成果可為類似工程提供參考與借鑒。

關(guān)鍵詞：古滑坡 ；肇災(zāi)影響因素 ；肇災(zāi)演化流程 ；穩(wěn)定性評價 ；發(fā)展趨勢

中圖分類號：P642           

文獻標志碼：A          

 文章編號： 1005- 8249   (2025)  04- 0084- 06

DOI:10. 19860/j.cnki.issn1005 - 8249.2025 .04.016

 

MIAO Yuanliang ,  ZHANG Shukun ,  MENG Chao

(Shandong Water Conservancy Group Co . ,   Ltd. ,  Ji ’nan 250014 ,   China)

Abstract :  To accurately grasp the disaster initiation and evolution process and stable state of special ancient landslides , based on the  geological  conditions  and basic characteristics of  the ancient  landslides ,  carry out analysis of  their  disaster initiation influencing factors  and  evolution  process; Based  on  landslide  deformation  monitoring  data ,  after  removing  random  noise  from landslide deformation data , the stability status evaluation and development trend evaluation of landslides are carried out through sharp point mutation analysis and multifractal trend fluctuation analysis , respectively. The  results  indicate  that  the  influencing factors of ancient landslides are relatively complete , and their evolution process  mainly includes  the early formation period and the  near  revival  period  of ancient  landslides ,  with clear  stages of  the evolution  process; Meanwhile ,  through  sharp  point mutation analysis , the mutation characteristic values of each monitoring point are all greater than 0 , indicating that the stability of the landslide  is  in  a  stable state; The  results of  multifractal  detrended  fluctuation analysis show  that the traditional Hurst exponent of each monitoring point is greater than 0. 5 , indicating that the cumulative deformation of the landslide will continue to increase and the stability will tend to develop in an unfavorable direction. Therefore , landslide prevention and control  should be carried out as soon as possible . The  research  results can provide reference and inspiration for similar projects .

Key  words : ancient landslide;  impact factors  of disaster;  disaster causing  evolution process;  stability evaluation; development trend

作者簡介： 苗元亮  (1977—) ,  男 ，本科 ，研究員 ，研究方向：地基與基礎(chǔ)處理技術(shù) 、水利工程加固技術(shù)。

收稿日期：2023 - 07 - 13